Where will the Shark Bite? Oregon’s Water Future and the Willamette Water 2100 Project

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By Josiah J. Shaver

It’s like a mystery drama. People want to know what the future of Oregon’s water will look like because water affects so many aspects of our society: our drinking water stores, agriculture and food production, local climate, water economics, wildfires, recreation, and government policies. The challenges we face today are the smoking gun, and the mysteries arise when we try to point fingers and guess at tomorrow. But the stakes are much higher than a common mystery novel. Water impacts almost everything. This our future, and the future of our children.

The challenge is that we can no longer rely solely on Oregon’s past to predict the future anymore. The environment is changing dramatically, and the Water Cycle got the bad side of the bargain. According to James P. Bruce, a Canadian hydrogeologist, “If climate change is a shark, water is its teeth.”

Close your eyes for a moment and try to imagine how climate change will impact Oregon’s water resources. Yeah, it’s difficult… and maybe a little frightening.

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When asked in a recent study if the “Willamette Valley has enough water to meet the needs of people, plants, and animals” for the year 2050, half of responders replied that they were “unsure.”

Personally, as a college student pursuing a career in water resources, I am keenly aware that I will be one of the professionals trying to solve whatever problems arise for Oregon’s water in 30 years. This is my future.

“The momentum of current trends and uncertainty of future changes make it critical for our region to anticipate the future Willamette River,” say experts from the research study described below.

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The Willamette Water 2100 Project

Nicknamed “WW2100” for short, the Willamette Water 2100 project is a collaborative attempt to predict the future. As one of the largest and most populous watershed basins in Oregon, the Willamette River Watershed will be ground zero for many of the state’s most critical water issues.

Last week I met with Dr. Phil Mote, who was one of the key organizers behind this project, and now serves as Vice Provost of the Oregon State University (OSU) Graduate School. Mote wore a formal dress shirt and tie. We sat down in his private office and he told me some of the story behind WW2100.

Back in 2010, Mote was one of two OSU faculty members who helped write the original project proposal for WW2100 to the National Science Foundation. Not only did he help create the project, but he also served as an adviser and coordinator over the six years that the project was in progress.

WW2100 is an ambitious attempt to design computer models that will accurately calculate specific conditions in Oregon as we approach the next century. The models rely heavily on past data collected from a variety of sources, on simulations that can accurately predict our current conditions based on the past, and on some standard predictions about climate change in Oregon.

Concerning scientific computer models, Mote noted, “In high school we’re taught that science operates in a very narrow way. … You have some control group, and you doing something, and you can repeat it. That is bench science. When we try to study the earth system, it is so large and complex and we don’t control it. So we can observe it, and we can observe how different factors seem to influence each other. But to really make sense of such a complex system we need to build some kind of a representative model.” And so, for the Willamette Valley, the WW2100 project was born.

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Mote went on to say that “For this project, we had not just a set of individual models, but we had a really fantastic platform for connecting models. It’s called Envision.”

During the modelling process, “teamwork” has been the name of the game. Researchers from Portland State University (PSU), the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI), the University of Oregon (UO), Oregon State University (OSU), and even the University of California in Santa Barbara contributed to the group effort. Together, these scientists make up a group of modern prophets. So what are they prophesying?

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The Prophesies: Snow, Fire, and Fish

You could say that there are three basic scenarios: Reference Case, LowClim, and HighClim. The “Reference Case” model estimates assume a “business as usual” scenario where climate conditions remain roughly the same as there are now. In contrast, the “HighClim” scenarios make estimates assuming that climate change continues to worsen, and the “LowClim” predictions are based on the unlikely scenario that climate change is somehow mitigated substantially.

For the Willamette River Watershed, it all starts with snow. If climate conditions remain the same as they are now, snowpack at high elevations (above 1640 ft., or 500 m) is expected to decrease by 74%. In other words, nearly three fourths of our snow will likely fall as rain by the end of the century. This means that more water will be running downstream instead of pilling up as snow to melt in summer months.

This presents a problem for snowboarders and skiers. Snowsport venues like Mt. Hood Meadows have already started planning for less snow. Mt. Hood Meadows has started to emphasize more summer sports to save money, and has become more involved in climate change activism.

With all this water rushing downstream, flooding is also a predicted problem. The WW2100 team reported, “We estimate current flood control benefits at more than a billion dollars annually and expect these benefits to triple by 2100 with economic growth and urban expansion.” In other words, they’re saying that investing in flood control will be quite necessary.

With more water inconveniently coming earlier in the year, people are also concerned about getting the water they need during the dry summer months. And the people are not the only concern. Changes at this scale affect the whole biological web of life. According to the WW2100 report, “Water management authorities are facing increasing demands to store water in reservoirs and withdraw more water during low flow seasons when the needs of the aquatic ecosystem also are most acute.”

These changes in seasonal streamflow are also alarming forest managers. Why’s that? Well, 70% of the Willamette River Basin is covered by forests. Given that the types of trees in these forests are expected to shift with climate change, forest and water managers are concerned about how much water these trees will drink up and evaporate. And then there’s fire.

The report claims, “In WW2100 simulations, low snowpack and hotter, drier summers lead to a two- to nine-times increase in land area burned by forest wildfires.” Fires like to eat up dry wood. Oregonians need to get ready for a lot of pretty ferocious wildfires.

Another fun factor will be Oregon’s population, which is growing. WW2100 predicts that “with a doubling of population, urban water demand could rise by 88% over the century.” In 2015 the average urban water demand sat at 330,000 cubic feet of water per day. By the year 2050, that demand is expected to reach 450,000, and the turn of the century could see demands of 700,000 cubic feet every day. That’s more than double the current demand, which will be a challenge to supply with such inconsistent seasonal streamflows.

Hotter water temperatures from climate change are also predicted to kill off some of the Willamette River Basin’s much-loved fish. Based on current trends, stream temperatures are expected to rise a full 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. If that happens, the WW2100 model projects 5% less Cutthroat Trout and 9% less juvenile Chinook Salmon. This is alarming because of the exponential repercussions that fish like salmon have on the rest of the ecological web. Oddly enough, these same conditions are expected to cause 11% more Carp, which is probably because Carp are a non-native fish species that like warmer water. The star-crossed Trout and Salmon, tragically, need colder water to live healthy lives.

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Warmer water will also cause more quality problems for our drinking water infrastructure, like the Salem Algal Bloom of May 2018.

As you can see, there are a lot of moving parts here. Some hydrology professionals have started using the phrase “wicked water problems” to refer to enigmas with high stakes, vague data, and conditions that keep changing. For example, maintaining drinking water quality is a wicked problem. People’s health, and sometimes their lives, depend on the water being clean. In addition, within the vast water infrastructure, contaminants are often hard to detect or track in such a dynamic system. Oregonians have a number of wicked water problems already starting to rear their ugly heads.

According to the WW2100 report, “One of the greatest challenges is to create a scientifically sound vision of the new river, a river that is changing because of its altered flow regimes and sediment supply, a river that is changing because of social changes in the towns and communities along its banks.”

Aside from all the predicted challenges, there were also some positive findings from the WW2100 project. For example, Mote reflected that, “…if you have urban expansion, it actually leads to a reduction in net water use.” This is because most wastewater is thoroughly treated and then returned to the Willamette River.

Progress in the Water Direction

So what do we need to do? What can we do now so that we can take these problems in stride and maintain stable water resource management?

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This is one of the main questions addressed by professionals all across the Willamette River Basin in the biannual Within Our Reach conference. At this event, which I was honored to attend in December 2018, professionals from a myriad of government organizations, private companies, universities, and First Nations tribes come together to discuss issues, share ideas, network, innovate, and gain a vision for Oregon’s water future. It’s quite an inspiring event.

Back in Dr. Mote’s office, he was happy to tell me about some of the progress made since the completion of the WW2100 project. He reflected that “Where we’ve seen the biggest movement is in these municipal water providers, who … were already thinking 30 years down the road … They’re now able to put a much richer environment of thinking about the future into the mix, thinking about the climate alongside the growth, the environmental concerns, the regulatory changes, [and] land use. So, to think about that more holistically—some of them are pretty excited about that.”

An interesting prediction of the WW2100 project is increased “stakeholder involvement”. A stakeholder is a person or group that uses the water, and, thus, has a stake in any changes that affect the water quantity or quality. Essentially, increased stakeholder involvement means that, with the rise of all these challenges, the experts are predicting that people are going to work together a lot more to find creative, collaborative solutions. That is exciting!

You are viewing this post: Where will the Shark Bite? Oregon’s Water Future and the Willamette Water 2100 Project. Information curated and compiled by Kayaknv.com along with other related topics.

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